National employment figures are churning in a positive direction, but one economist says U.S. payrolls will surge forward with 2 million new jobs in 2011. Scott Brown, the chief economist at Raymond James & Associates, made the prediction using data collected from nationwide, unemployment insurance claims, firing figures, small business trends and inventory purchasing records.
According to Bloomberg, Brown's prediction calls for the unemployment rate to slip to 8.6 percent, slightly lower than the 8.8 percent median forecasted by 61 economists in a Bloomberg survey last week. Brown told Bloomberg that the
payroll gains and corresponding drop in the national unemployment rate can be directly tied to recent optimistic consumer trends.
"We’ll see consumer spending remaining pretty strong," Brown told the news source. "Firms large and small won’t hire unless they see more demand."
Brown, who Bloomberg calls " the most accurate forecaster of the jobless rate over the past two years," predicts the U.S. will add approximately 167,000 jobs per month in 2011, which would double the 909,000 jobs added in 2010.
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